Using the Gods to beat the odds.

Confession

Hello all. Well, it’s time to ‘come clean’ regarding my trades at the weekend, in my very first Confession session of this blog. In this section of the blog, I’ll be looking at holding myself to account with the trades I undertook. How did they go? What went right? What went wrong? And more importantly, did I manage to make any money?

So, how did they go? The trades went very well, even if I do say so myself. I only managed to do two trades. These were the early kick-off games on Saturday afternoon (Arsenal vs Spurs) and Sunday afternoon (Man City vs Man United). I mentioned in my Friday Mass that I would trade the Liverpool/Brighton match, as well as the Palace/Chelsea match. Unfortunately, I decided to give my partner a much needed rest and go for a walk with my children. This walk clashed with those games kicking off, so rather than not being able to give the trades my full attention, I decided to leave these games and just enjoy the walk and the time spent as a family. Below is how the trades I did manage to do panned out:

Arsenal vs Spurs
This games played nicely into my hands. Before kick-off I opted for the correct scorelines of 1-1, 2-1, and 1-2 (as mentioned in my Friday Mass post). For those of you that followed the game, just after 30 minutes the scoreline was in fact 1-1. This meant that all three of my correct score trades were still in the game. This gave me a healthy green (profit) amount which I decided to take early. The reason I decided to take the early green was two-fold. Firstly, there was still two-thirds of the game to play, and I could see another goal being scored. If this third goal came too early, I would have probably been looking at a red (loss) and panicking that a fourth goal would be scored (which actually happened). This never sits right with me. Secondly, I’m very risk adverse. I prefer to take smaller profits often rather than be more risky and let the trades run for bigger greens. This trade gave me a profit of £12.64, which I was grateful for. This gave me confidence in what was my first serious trade of the season.

Man City vs Man United
I didn’t think this game would have as many goals as it did, but then again I don’t think many did. I did mention in my Sunday Sermon blog post that I would lean heavily towards a Man City win, and that proved to be prudent. I managed to hedge the AOH (Any Other Home win), and with laying some of my other scores that I backed, I managed to walk away from this trade with a small green. This trade gave me a nice little profit of £3.52. Here’s a screenshot of my weekend trades:



So, what is there to confess? I would say I need to work on my confidence, to possibly stay in trades longer and to make those greens even greener. This will be a work in progress and I’m sure that confidence will come in time. I have recently purchased a book that I hope will help with this, and I’ll probably dedicate a post on this book if I feel it’s deserved. Another confession is that I’m disappointed I never managed to trade the 3pm kick-offs on Saturday, especially as my prediction of a 2-1 win for Chelsea actually came in. The Liverpool game would have probably seen me hit a big red as my predictions for this game were well off – so I’m not feeling too bad about it. I think it’s more the fact that this season I promised myself that I would take my trading a lot more seriously and make the time to trade, and that never happened. One positive aspect is that because I couldn’t give the Saturday 3pm kick-offs my 100% focus, I never traded them at all. I wasn’t even tempted. In the past I’ve realised that if you can’t give trading your full attention then it’s probably best to give it a miss.

So, that’s it for my confession session. I’m off to say 2 Our Fathers and 5 Hail Marys for my penance. I hope to catch you all soon. I’ll probably do another post on Wednesday or Thursday about something useful to help improve my trading. I’ll have a little think about it. Thanks for reading. Amen my betting brethren.

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