Using the Gods to beat the odds.

Confession – 8th Oct ’22

Yet another financial and psychological kicking. I can’t seem to catch a break lately. But, these things happen in the world of football trading. You have good times, you have bad times. This is a bad time. And it’s how you react in these bad times that will determine how good a football trader you will be. So, what went bad for me? And what went well for me? Read below and find out:

Man City vs Fulham (Saturday)
When I found out that Haaland wasn’t playing, or Foden, I bet outright on 2-0 and 2-1, hedging the AOH scoreline. This match didn’t go according to plan due to the sending off. Although at 1-1 I was quite happy, as I did think that Man City would score another, despite the fact they only had ten men. I just thought that they might have scored it a bit sooner than when they did. It got to around the 65-70 minute mark and I decided to trade out for a loss of -£3.69. It was disheartening to then hear that Man City scored a last minute penalty. If I had stayed in the trade I would have posted a good profit. But, I did the right thing by getting out when I did. So I can’t be too hard on myself. If I stayed in the trade and the game stayed 1-1, then I would have been looking at a much larger loss of around £25, so I need to look at it from that point of view.

Everton vs Leicester (Saturday)
I went with the scorelines 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-0, and AOH. I actually watched this game and from the opening exchanges I did think that Leicester were the better side and offered a lot more in attack. What I should have done was possibly altered my trades so that they mirrored what was happening on the pitch. Instead I stayed in my trades and suffered when Leicester opened the scoring in spectacular fashion. I was hoping for an Everton equaliser but this didn’t look likely to happen. Because of this I decided to trade out. This was for a loss of -£4.68. It turned out to be the right decision, but I could have avoided the loss if I changed my trades earlier on. Maybe I’m being hard on myself, but you do start to question your actions, or lack of actions, when you are on a bit of a losing streak.

Chelsea vs Arsenal (Sunday)
I only went for two trades for this game – 1-2 and 2-1. I felt that the two teams were very evenly matched and my selections reflected this. I traded out around the 70 minute mark when I realised that there wasn’t going to be much happening in the game in terms of goals as Arsenal were strong at the back and Chelsea’s attacked seemed to be rather blunted. I took a loss of -£0.74.

Southampton vs Newcastle (Sunday)
I dutched several scorelines. One of these was the AOA scoreline to break even. I did try to lay my 0-2 trade, but by the time I got around to it Newcastle scored another goal to make it 0-3. Rather than trade out for another significant loss, I decided to let the trade ride as I did think that Newcastle would score another goal so my break-even trade would come in. Well, when I say break-even, I actually made a 7p profit!

Aston Villa vs Man Utd (Sunday)
In this game I traded a fair few scorelines, mainly 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 0-2, and AOA. I didn’t really keep an eye on this trade and let it get beyond me. My intentions were to trust my initial selections and try not to interfere too much. To have a bit more faith in what I had chosen. Unfortunately this bit me on the arse when Villa scored their third to make it 3-1. All my trades were dead in the water for a total loss of -£8.07.

Spurs vs Liverpool (Sunday)
After the performances Liverpool have put out recently, the day I decide to go against them is the day they decide to get their first away win of the season. It was typical of my trading decisions recently. I thought that Spurs offered good value at 3.6 so I put a trade on them to win. Especially as Liverpool have been prone of late to conceding the first goal. After Liverpool scored their second goal that was pretty much it, and my total loss for this trade was -£4.78.

Confession
So what is my biggest take from this weekend’s trading? Possibly that better choices need to be made in what I am choosing to trade. I feel in terms of following a process I did alright this week. It’s just my initial selections are letting me down. I’m not going to be too hard on myself because of this though. There’s going to be variance, I just need to accept this as part of the trading process.

I would also say that I possibly need to recognise when the trades are not going my way and when I need to cut these short. But with football, there will be times when one team is on top, and then it switches to the other team. So I’m not going to be too harsh on myself, but I do just need to be aware that there will be times when I need to re-evaluate my selections. I will hopefully be bearing these lessons in mind in my future trades. In the meantime I will say 2 Hail Mary’s for my penance.

I’ll probably stick my results of the weekend up in a post tomorrow night. It’s not pretty reading, but something that I like to put out there to be honest with my readers, and hopefully something for me to reflect upon in the future. Good luck if you’re trading this week. I’ll be leaving things well alone until the weekend., so I’ll probably see you all in the Friday Night Mass. May the Lord be with you. Always.

Published by

Leave a comment