Using the Gods to beat the odds.

Psychology, Trading Bank, and Trusting Your System

As regular readers of this blog would have read recently, I haven’t been seeing much profit in my trading of late. This has seen me question and lose faith in the trades I’ve been making. But not only the trades I’ve been making, but also the trades I’m about to make. And because of this, before the weekend of Week 18 I decided to reduce my stakes from £20 to £10 (I already decided to reduce my stakes from £25 to £20 a week or so earlier). I hoped that this would help me deal with things better when my trades turned out to be losers (again). But what I didn’t realise was that there was a flipside to reducing my trading stakes – how would I deal with things psychologically should these lower-stake trades actually turn out to be winners!!! Well, as it turned out, I dealt with it okay-ish. I did turn it over in my head again and again, but I just had to put down the decision I made to experience, and try not to think of the profit I missed out on.

Part of the reason I did reduce my stakes was due to the fact I was running out of trading bank. I have heard people mention about making sure you have a proper bank. Not a trading bank where you lose a few trades and then start reducing your trades. A bank needs to be able to take multiple loses. Find out what the typical number of losses you can expect on the bounce, and then treble it. Or something like that. Basically ensure that you’ve got a bank that can takes a whole series of losses and not effect your trading psychologically, and make you reduce your stakes. This is something I’ll be taking into account going forward.

Another issue you’ll encounter if you’re following a particular trading system is having trust in that particular system you’re using. It’s all well and good back testing your system prior to going live, but as soon as you come across a losing streak you can’t help yourself to go over the data just to ensure that everything is correct and there’s no issues that you might have previously missed. It’s not a bad thing to check your system every now and again anyway I guess. I’ve previously checked my system and I have had to correct a few things even though I thought everything was alright. And I know I’ve recently questioned my data when I’ve been on my current losing streak. But I’ve also noticed that sometimes it’s not the system that’s at fault, but it’s the user at fault for not following the trades the system is identifying. I know I’ve missed a few trades, or ignored trades that didn’t sit right with me, and I’ve missed out on money to be made. Take last weekend for example, I had £100 on Man City to win their game. My stats also told me that City winning 1-0 was potentially a good trade to make. But because I had money already invested in the game, I didn’t want to risk any more. This cost me 8 points, which would have amounted to £80 using my current trading stake. Hey-ho! Another lesson learnt on my trading journey.

That’s pretty much it really. I’m sure there’s pretty more I’ve yet to experience along this bumpy journey I’m on. The thing is, the journey might well be bumpy, but as long as I’m still on the path that’s all that matters. Good luck with your trading this weekend. I’m hoping to post any trades that I’m on, but if I don’t catch you, may the Lord be with you. Always!

Published by

Leave a comment